Extremebayes: Bayesian Extreme Value Analysis

★ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆ | 6 users

Last accessed Apr 03, 2025
Author Lee Fawcett Reader in Applied Statistics, Newcastle University

About the app

Extremebayes is an application designed for Bayesian Extreme Value Analysis, focusing on the estimation of r-year return levels for extreme events like wind speed, sea-surge, or rainfall. The Bayesian setting offers advantages, including the extension to prediction through the posterior predictive distribution. The paper evaluates the performance of predictive return levels in comparison to estimative counterparts derived directly from the return level posterior distribution, such as mean, mode, and 95% credible upper bound. The assessment highlights the potential of the predictive return level, supported by a large-scale simulation study. Extremebayes provides built-in datasets, including wind speed data, advocating for a Bayesian approach to improve estimation procedures and provide practitioners with a comprehensive point summary that incorporates uncertainty arising from model estimation through the predictive return level.

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